Math & 9 rings, is it just me?

Seems basic math to me, but people seem to miss it.

Basic premises on 9 rings:

1) standing in any ring over time averages to the same number of ticket wins

2) standing in the corners gives you highest number losses advancing unlucky

Seems to be a no-brainer to stand in a corner (as one guy in game put it, anybody with an iq over 90 stands in a corner to max both at same time).

Well, my iq is 128, and I'm a center ring guy for that same reason. Let's do some math here....

I have a 32% retain rate on HM chests for most the areas I play. Thus, if a lockpick breaks, I gain 80 unlucky pts (2.5x retention rate) for basically 1.25k minus whatever I sell the item for, let's say on AVERAGE 250g (probably quite a bit higher than that AVERAGE, but i'll use that low number). Standing in a corner ring I can ignore the wins since avg is equal to center ring and focus on losses. Those 80 extra unlucky pts I'm standing in a corner for cost me 80*10 tickets per loss*15g per ticket = 12k. So roughly 12x what using a lockpick did for the same number pts!

To me, it's a no-brainer that with wins constant avg per ring maximizing losses in 9 rings for unlucky is a VERY poor way in terms of cost of obtaining unlucky pts. You're better off just using a lockpick on every chest you come across in PVE instead, and thus using the center ring is a much better use of funds. Standing in a corner costs you 12.3k MORE on avg per hour than standing in the center for those additional 82 unlucky pts. Even if you only had a 16% retain rate, you'd have almost the same benefit (80 pts) from 2 broken picks, or ~ 2k in cost.

Obviously, rings is great for lucky title at 1.2g avg per pt. whereas opening a 600g lvl chest in NM (for which at my rate I have 65% retain rate) still costs me an avg 2.2g (rounded up) per pt.

Again, center ring ftw!|||Quote:








Each ring rewards on average 85 tickets for every 90 tickets spent, resulting in a net loss of 5 tickets per 85 tickets towards the lucky title




Unless you're contesting that piece of data, your whole argument fails. When you lose a game, you don't gain anything, and you don't lose anything. The cost of playing is constant, regardless of whether you win or lose. The average gain is constant.

The comparison lockpick vs. *extra* unlucky points is unfair. Luck & unluck points are *way* cheaper with gambling than with lockpicks, so it becomes an issue of corner vs. middle. Even though you lose more, you win more when you win, so the actual ticket loss per hour *is the same*. Might as well get the most of it... which would be corner. The only reason to do lockpicks is (1) for Treasure Hunter points, (2) for the loot including Wisdom points, and (3) because you can't gamble year long.

The average cost of 9 rings, according to wiki data, is 3k / hour. So I don't see how playing on a corner costs 12.3k *more* than center... I think your math is off.|||i know an idea, what about making the tickets free so the title isn't a cost game.|||You can't have it both ways Alaris. Standing on a corner provides approximately 246 unlucky points per hour, compared to 205 on an edge ring, or 164 on a center ring. Unless lucky also advances at a rate 150% faster than the center ring for a corner, and I don't THINK that is the case....|||Quote:








You can't have it both ways Alaris. Standing on a corner provides approximately 246 unlucky points per hour, compared to 205 on an edge ring, or 164 on a center ring. Unless lucky also advances at a rate 150% faster than the center ring for a corner, and I don't THINK that is the case....




Alaris is right.

The ticket rewards on the corner rings are higher than in the centre, that's where you make a mistake.|||I understand the rewards are higher on the corners. Are you saying you also accumulate lucky pts faster on corner? 150% faster than center? Cause that's the only way with the added losses per hour that they avg the same.|||Quote:








I understand the rewards are higher on the corners. Are you saying you also accumulate lucky pts faster on corner? 150% faster than center? Cause that's the only way with the added losses per hour that they avg the same.




You're confusing your variables.

Lucky title is the number of tickets won, which is constant regardless of where you stand.

Cost depends on the number of games played (which is regardless of where you stand) and on the number of tickets won (which is regardless of where you stand). So that is again, regardless of where you stand. Cost is oddly enough... NOT dependent on how many times you lost... The cost is only dependent on how many times you play, and how many times you win.

Unlucky is dependent on how many times you lose... which is more frequent on corners.

Let's have an extreme example.



Game A:

Cost: 1$ per try

Wins: 1/10 chance of winning 10$, otherwise you lose.

Average cost: 1$ - 1/10*10$ = 0$. The wins and costs are perfectly balanced.

Average wins: 1/10*10$, so on average 1$ per game played.

Average loss: you lose 9 out of 10 times, so 0.9 loss per game played.

Game B

Cost: 1$ per try

Wins: 1$ every single time you play.

Average cost: obviously, 0$.

Average wins: 1$ per game played.

Average loss: you never lose, so 0.0 loss per game.

Comparison:

Lucky: You win more often in game B, but Lucky doesn't count that. It counts how much you win, which is the same for both games.

Unlucky: You lose more often in game A.

Cost: the games are perfectly matched in costs and wins in the long run.|||I can't win the same number of tickets in the same amount of time and accumulate more losses and have them be equal. Thus, the ONLY way the corner makes sense is if you also accumulate lucky pts faster as well. I am not confused on that pt at all.

You would have to win 150 tickets in the same amount of time as winning 100 tickets in the center ring, thus accumulating lucky faster on the corner to make up for the extra 82 losses per hour avg. Again, is that the case? Do you get 150% more tickets in the same amount of time standing in a corner, thus obtaining lucky titles FASTER (significantly faster).|||You don't lose tickets when you lose.

You lose tickets when you play.

That's where you are making the mistake.|||Unlucky points is what it's all about.

I like unlucky points.